SACCI Media Release
Embargo: 11:30 – 21 July 2026
Cautionary Note on Survey:
The SACCI Trade Conditions Survey is a monthly survey that inquires trade conditions and does not claim to reflect overall trade conditions or activities. The survey does not only entertain SACCI members. The results should be interpreted with the necessary circumspection.
Improved Trade Conditions Expected Beyond Fuel Price Distortion
The war in the Middle East negatively affected trade conditions as it impacted fuel supply and rapidly rising crude oil prices. Crude oil prices peaked at some US dollar 119 at the end of April 2026. This had a marked effect on not only fuel prices at the pump but escalated throughout the supply chain with a pronounced effect on the inflation rate. This development had a direct effect on spending patterns of households and the costs of businesses. Therefore,75% of respondents to the April 2026 Survey recorded a rise in input costs. With the crude oil price returning to about 72 US dollar at the end of June 2026, it had positive effects on business and particularly general trade conditions in June and improved trade expectations.
Trade conditions continued to be tight in June 2026 as the Trade Conditions Index (TAI) for June 2026 remained subdued at a seasonally adjusted thirty-six. Inventories, backlog on orders and input prices (especially since the high crude oil prices in April) turned positive in June. All the other components of trade declined marginally since May and stabilised in June 2026. See the attached Infographic for detailed indices on the components.
Apart from lower input costs, sales prices remained virtually stable in June although the general price level (inflation) partially started to reflect the full fuel price impact in May. The lower sales volumes and new orders for May and June indicate the real effect of the rising fuel prices and their effect on spending patterns in the economy.
Expected trade conditions moved firmly back into positive mode for the next six months according to the June 2026 Survey. The gap between present and expected trade conditions remains wide but the much lower crude oil and pump prices spurred positive expectations after the serious dip in the Trade Expectations Index in April 2026.
According to the latest released data, consumer inflation increased to 4.5% in May 2026 while producer inflation measured 4.3%. Electricity tariffs rose by 12% y/y in May 2026 while the diesel price increased by 50% in June after the 64% increase in May 2026. Credit to households rose by 4.7%y/y and to non-households by nearly 12%y/y in May 2026. Retail trade volumes remained suppressed and rising by only 1.3%y/y. Notable depressed activities were also evident in manufacturing (-2.8%y/y), construction (-2.9%y/y), and merchandise export trade volumes (-6.4%y/y).
The current weaker trade conditions led respondents to employ less staff although 31% still hired staff in June 2026. Given expected improved trade conditions in the next six months, respondents intend to increase employment with the expected index increasing to 57 in June 2026 from 40 in April (the peak of high crude oil prices).
Released by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry at their offices in Melrose, Johannesburg. contact:
Alan Mukoki SACCI CEO Cell: 082 551 1159
Richard Downing Economist Cell: 082 822 5566