Embargo: 11:30 – 18 August 2026
Business Confidence Tilting Positive
The SACCI’s Business Confidence Index (BCI) appears to have bottomed around 124 since the sharp decline in April 2026, with the BCI recording 125.4 in July 2026. The BCI was still 8.7 index points higher than in July 2025. The most significant positive monthly impacts on the BCI in July were made by the number of new vehicle sales, merchandise export volumes and lower energy prices. A substantial negative impact on the BCI was made by higher inflation and the decrease in the global precious metal prices.
It was only higher inflation that had a notable negative effect on business confidence in July if compared to July 2025. The number of overseas tourists remains a major positive driver for business confidence despite short-term instability. The business climate was further sustained by the continuing high global price of precious metals, increased merchandise import volumes, and the exceptional increased number of new vehicles sold.
The South African economy and continues to be affected by the consequences of the war in the Middle East as well as domestic economic performance and policy matters. Ratings regarding South Africa’s creditworthiness and investment improved but a stricter Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy stance and slow economic growth emphasise the impact of the uncertainty created by the present inflationary process.
International commodity prices played a major role in the trade environment and business climate of South Africa. There was the positive effect from precious metal prices but also the negative effect of the crude oil price. In dealing with the AGOA agreement, agriculture producers had to contend with reaching favourable deals for specific produce.
Although the South African economy must deal with slow performance and other structural challenges, the inflationary trend and the fiscal challenges remain despite continuous efforts to address the economically unsustainable demands for social adherence. Serious attention is needed for especially the dire straits some local governments find themselves in.
For a full background to this month’s SACCI BCI see the full BCI report.