SACCI Media Release
SACCI Trade Conditions Survey – August 2026
Embargo: 11:30 – 16 September 2026
Cautionary Note on Survey:
The SACCI Trade Conditions Survey is a monthly survey that inquires trade conditions and does not claim to reflect overall trade activities. The survey does not only entertain SACCI members. The results should be interpreted with the necessary circumspection.
Stable but Tentative Trade Conditions
The effect of the war in the Middle East on fuel prices in April 2026 had a disrupting impact on trade conditions. It, however, appears as though trade conditions are slowly recovering, with the index of present conditions, after reaching a low of 35 in June, recovered somewhat to 42 in August 2026. The increase in the crude oil price from about 73 US dollars at the end of June 2026 to 90 US dollars at the end of August 2026 (23% increase) could lead to further cautious trade conditions and affect spending patterns. Input costs and profitability of business may be adversely impacted.
Trade conditions improved marginally in July and August 2026 and appears to have stabilized but remain in negative terrain. Supplier deliveries and inventories improved while sales prices and input costs were virtually unchanged. New orders and sales volumes improved slightly. The July and August 2026 Surveys indicate that inflationary pressures may have eased. See attached Infographic for detail on trade elements.
Trade conditions were also reflected in recently released official data:
- consumer inflation slowed to 4.3% and producer inflation to 3.1% in July 2026;
- private banking credit to households rose by 5%y/y and to non-households by some 9%y/y in July 2026;
- retail trade volumes remained restrained and rising by only 1.6%y/y; and
- merchandise export volumes dip in the short term.
Expected trade conditions continued their upward trend and recorded a positive mode for the coming six months according to SACCI’s August 2026 Trade Conditions Survey. However, the divergence between present and expected trade conditions remains. The more stable fuel price and lower inflation played a role in the positive expectations. It is imperative that real economic performance supports the expected improved trade conditions.
The present stable but tough trade conditions still led 33% of respondents to employ staff in August 2026. Given expected improved trade conditions in the next six months, respondents intend to increase employment with the index increasing to 64 in August 2026 from 40 in April 2026 (during peak of high crude oil prices).
Released by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry at their offices in Johannesburg. For more information and infographic, see the SACCI website – www.sacci.org.za or contact:
Alan Mukoki SACCI CEO Cell: 082 551 1159
Richard Downing Economist Cell: 082 822 5566
Regards,