SACCI Media Release
SACCI Trade Conditions Survey – December 2024
Embargo: 11:30 – 16 January 2025
Cautionary Note on Survey:
This is a monthly SACCI survey and does not claim to present overall trade conditions. The survey does not only entertain SACCI members. The results should be interpreted with the necessary circumspection.
Trade Expectations Outpace Trade Activity
The trade outlook remained well into positive territory, but present trade activity was still in negative territory according to SACCI’s December 2024 Trade Conditions Survey. The survey suggests that although some structural economic impediments may be resolved, the poor economic performance at present is preventing trade from reaching its more optimal potential. However, 40% of the respondents indicated that present trade conditions were nonetheless better than in December 2023.
Trade conditions slowed down since August 2024 and deteriorated even further, with only 35% of respondents experiencing positive conditions in December 2024. However, the outlook for trade in the next six months improved notably, with 65% of respondents in December compared to some 54% of respondents in October 2024 being positive. The sales volumes index of 37 in December 2024 shows that the majority of respondents find trade conditions demanding. Increased new orders dipped to 28% of respondents. The difference of 26 index points between present supply deliveries and expected deliveries reflects the logistical problems currently experienced, mainly with rail and sea transport. Lower stock levels confirm the existing tight trade conditions. The six-month sales outlook is nevertheless at a high level, with 72% of participants anticipating better sales compared to 58% in October 2024.
Input costs eased somewhat as the index shed 9 index points between October 2024 and December 2024, while sales prices rose by a modest 2 index points between November and December 2024. It is expected that both input costs and sales prices will accelerate in the next six months. As inflationary expectations may rise, it could deter an easier monetary stance and cause the SA Reserve Bank to continue a cautious approach. However, with lower consumer inflation (3%) and producer prices declining (0.1%) in November, a bolder lowering of interest rates may be appropriate.
Recently released data on some trade activities suggest that despite slow economic growth and high unemployment, trade experiences are diverse. The latest data indicate dissimilar year-on-year performances: retail sales volumes +6.3%; merchandise export volumes -9.3%; real value of building plans passed +16%; merchandise import volumes -4.6%; wholesale trade sales +3.4%; and new vehicle sales +2.5%.
Despite challenging trade conditions and tight profit margins, employment in the trade sector was relatively stable, with respondents employing staff in November (45%) and December (41%), while 57% intend to employ more people in the next six months.
Released by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry at their offices in Illovo, Johannesburg. For more information and infographic, see the SACCI website – www.sacci.org.za or contact:
Alan Mukoki SACCI CEO Cell: 082 551 1159
Richard Downing Economist Cell: 082 822 5566
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